The EUR/USD currency pair, while not reaching new highs this week, has maintained a generally positive trend, bolstered by new bullish technical signals. After dipping to a low of 1.1264 on Tuesday, the pair recovered to a peak of 1.1412, settling around 1.1370 on Friday morning—an increase of over 550 pips since the beginning of the month.
EUR/USD Ignores ECB Rate Cut Amid Trump’s Pressure on Fed
In addition to ongoing tariff discussions that continue to stir macroeconomic uncertainty, the week’s key event was the ECB meeting held yesterday. As anticipated, the European Central Bank has reduced its key interest rate by 0.25%. However, the central bank has refrained from signaling further cuts in the coming months, mitigating the bearish impact on the EUR/USD pair.
Conversely, the Federal Reserve is expected to implement rate cuts in the upcoming months. In a speech this week, Jerome Powell highlighted the delicate position of the U.S. central bank, facing the challenge of either fostering growth through rate reductions or controlling inflation by avoiding monetary easing. Trump’s consistent pressure on the Fed could potentially influence the central bank to lean towards a softer policy, claiming that inflation driven by tariffs will be merely “transitory.”
Looking ahead to next week’s economic calendar, few significant events for the EUR/USD are on the horizon, aside from the anticipated preliminary PMI indices for April, scheduled for Wednesday. This light schedule, combined with many traders being out for the Easter holiday, suggests a phase of indecision in the coming sessions.
EUR/USD Confirms Golden Cross: Bullish Acceleration Ahead?
From a technical analysis perspective, the most significant signal recorded this week occurred yesterday, as the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average, confirming a “golden cross” often heralding major bullish trends.
However, the RSI indicator is currently in the overbought zone, displaying a significant bearish divergence with the currency pair, suggesting that a phase of consolidation may be necessary before further peaks are reached. Should the currency pair continue its upward trend, the previous week’s high at 1.1475 and the psychological level of 1.15 will present the first obstacles to monitor. Conversely, the initial key support lies within the area formed by this week’s low at 1.1265 and the round figure of 1.13.
Thus, the underlying trend of the EUR/USD remains positive. However, the magnitude of the recent rise, alongside the lighter upcoming schedule, supports a phase of indecision next week, allowing the currency pair to regain strength for a potential subsequent rally.
